《经济学人20170805封面随笔》- 咋样避免与朝鲜的核战争bwin56必赢手机版

President Donald Trump has vowed to stop North Korea from perfecting a
nuclear warhead that could threaten the American mainland, tweeting that
“it won’t happen!” Some pundits suggest shooting down future test
missiles on the launchpad or, improbably, in the air. Others suggest
using force to overthrow the regime or pre-emptive strikes to destroy Mr
Kim’s nuclear arsenal before he has a chance to use it.
特朗普总统曾经尽人皆知表示,
要阻止朝鲜宏观可以胁制花旗国的核打击能力,并在Twitter上说“绝不会让它发生”。一些专家提议,未来把发射台上,或者说有可能的话,把曾经飞上天的测试导弹给打下来。还有人指出使用武力颠覆政权,或是首发制人,在三胖可以利用往日把她的核武器库摧毁

这期的封面标题是How to avoid nuclear war with 诺思 Korea
There are no good options to curb Kim Jong Un. But blundering into war
would be the worst
咋样避免和朝鲜拓展核战争
不曾什么样好的办法可以范围金三胖,但万一没办好开战了,这会是最坏的场地

If military action is reckless and diplomacy insufficient, the only
remaining option is to deter and contain Mr Kim. Mr Trump should make
clear—in a scripted speech, not a tweet or via his secretary of
state—that America is not about to start a war, nuclear or conventional.
However, he should reaffirm that a nuclear attack by North Korea on
America or one of its allies will immediately be matched. Mr Kim cares
about his own skin. He enjoys the life of a dissolute deity, living in a
palace and with the power to kill or bed any of his subjects. If he were
to unleash a nuclear weapon, he would lose his luxuries and his life. So
would his cronies. That means they can be deterred.
一经军事行动过于鲁莽而外交又过于辛劳,唯一剩下的选项唯有胁制和竭制三胖。Trump总统应该以公开讲演的样式,不是发Twitter或者让外交部代言昭告天下:美利坚合众国不会积极性发起战争,无论是常规战如故核战。但假如美利坚联邦合众国或其盟友际境遇朝鲜的核打击,将会应声还以颜色。三胖非凡关注自己,他很享受自己这既放荡,又跟神一般的生活。深居宫殿之内,想杀什么人就杀何人,想睡何人就睡什么人。假如她放了核弹出去,他这条小命和铺张浪费的生存就全都没了,而且会涉及到他的相信,所以从这多少个角度来说,他们是可以被威慑的。

bwin56必赢手机版 1

IT IS odd that North Korea causes so much trouble. It is not exactly a
superpower. Its economy is only a fiftieth as big as that of its
democratic capitalist cousin, South Korea. Americans spend twice its
total GDP on their pets. Yet Kim Jong Un’s backward little dictatorship
has grabbed the attention of the whole world, and even of America’s
president, with its nuclear brinkmanship. On July 28th it tested an
intercontinental ballistic missile that could hit Los Angeles. Before
long, it will be able to mount nuclear warheads on such missiles, as it
already can on missiles aimed at South Korea and Japan. In charge of
this terrifying arsenal is a man who was brought up as a demigod and
cares nothing for human life—witness the innocents beaten to death with
hammers in his gigantic gulag. Last week his foreign ministry vowed that
if the regime’s “supreme dignity” is threatened, it will “pre-emptively
annihilate” the countries that threaten it, with all means “including
the nuclear ones”. Only a fool could fail to be alarmed.
北朝鲜能搞出这样多事真的挺神奇。它不是什么样一流大国。他的经济体量只有他这搞民主资本主义的哥们-高丽国的五异常之一。美利坚联邦合众国人一年花在宠物上的钱是它GDP的两倍。可是三胖这种开历史转折的小独裁却引起了全球的关注,包括米利坚总理,就因为他的核边缘政策。九月28日它测试发射了洲际弹道导弹,射程可以打到法兰克福。不久事后,
他将会有能力把核弹头挂在这种导弹上,对于东瀛和大韩民国他曾经有这种打击能力了.
控制那一个恐怖军工厂的是一个从小就被当作英雄崇拜着长大的人,他对于人命漠不关注,可以在她这高大的集中营里冷眼目睹无辜的人被铁锤活活敲死。就在下一周她的外交部门放出狠话,说如果政权的“最高尊严”受到威迫,他们将会对要挟国家首发制人,实施打击,并保留使用核武器在内一切手段的权利。唯有傻瓜才会不惧怕

Can Mr Kim be cajoled or bribed into giving up his nuclear ambitions? It
is worth trying, but has little chance of success. In 1994 President
Bill Clinton secured a deal whereby Kim Jong Il (the current despot’s
father) agreed to stop producing the raw material for nuclear bombs in
return for a huge injection of aid. Kim took the money and technical
help, but immediately started cheating. Another deal in 2005 failed, for
the same reason. The younger Kim, like his father, sees nuclear weapons
as the only way to guarantee the survival of his regime. It is hard to
imagine circumstances in which he would voluntarily give up what he
calls his “treasured sword of justice”.
三胖能被劝诱或者收买,主动放任他的核子野心么?值得一试,可是指望渺茫。1994年的时候克林顿(Clinton)和金二胖(三胖的爹)签了个协议,朝鲜截止生产核武器原料,来换取大量的帮忙。二胖拿了血本和技巧帮助,却转头翻脸不认人。二〇〇五年另一个商事也破产了,也是一模一样的原因。年轻的三胖,跟她爹一样,都把核武器看做是保安政权的唯一手段。很难想象一种可能,会让他自觉放任这把她所谓“宝贵的正义之剑”

To contain Mr Kim, America and its allies should apply pressure that
cannot be misconstrued as a declaration of war. They should ramp up
economic sanctions not only against the North Korean regime but also
against the Chinese companies that trade with it or handle its money.
America should formally extend its nuclear guarantee to South Korea and
Japan, and boost the missile defences that protect both countries. This
would help ensure that they do not build nuclear weapons of their own.
America should convince the South Koreans, who will suffer greatly if
war breaks out, that it will not act without consulting them. China is
fed up with the Kim regime, but fears that if it were to collapse, a
reunified Korea would mean American troops on China’s border. Mr Trump’s
team should guarantee that this will not happen, and try to persuade
China that in the long run it is better off with a united, prosperous
neighbour than a poor, violent and unpredictable one.
要竭制三胖,美利坚联邦合众国和其同盟国需要对其施加压力,同时注意不可以被误读为开战的讯号。他们相应加大经济制裁的力度,除朝鲜之外,同时制约这一个和朝鲜有交易或经济往来的中国公司。美利哥相应规范向扶桑和高丽国提供核保障,加强导弹防御系统对两国实践保养。这也促进保险两国不会协调打造核武器。一旦开战,南韩会损失巨大,所以美利坚同盟国相应说服高丽国在向美利坚联邦合众国咨询此前不要擅自行动。中国也很烦三胖的政权,但还要担心假设三胖倒台,一个集合的高丽国就象征美利坚合众国的行伍会并发在炎黄的分野上。Trump的团队应当确保那不会时有暴发,并试着说服中国从长久来看,有个团结,繁荣的邻里比一个返贫,暴力和不得预测的近邻强得多

Yet it is just this sort of military action that risks a ruinous
escalation. Mr Kim’s bombs and missile-launchers are scattered and well
hidden. America’s armed forces, for all their might, cannot reliably
neutralise the North Korean nuclear threat before Mr Kim has a chance to
retaliate. The task would be difficult even if the Pentagon had good
intelligence about North Korea; it does not. The only justification for
a pre-emptive strike would be to prevent an imminent nuclear attack on
America or one of its allies.
幸而这种军事行动会带动事态破坏性升级的高危。三胖的炸弹和导弹发射器被疏散配置,而且隐藏的很好。美利哥的军事没有艺术适用保证,可以在三胖有时机打击报复从前消除朝鲜的核威慑。这项任务就是在五角大楼拥有很好的朝鲜情报时也很不方便,更不要说还从未。这种首发打击的绝无仅有理由就是阻止弥利坚或其盟国碰着核打击

What another Korean war might look like
Yet the most serious danger is not that one side will suddenly try to
devastate the other. It is that both sides will miscalculate, and that a
spiral of escalation will lead to a catastrophe that no one wants. Our
briefing this week lays out, step by step, one way that America and
North Korea might blunder into a nuclear war. It also lists some of the
likely consequences. These include: for North Korea, the destruction of
its regime and the death of hundreds of thousands of people. For South
Korea, the destruction of Seoul, a city of 10m within easy range of
1,000 of the North’s conventional artillery pieces. For America, the
possibility of a nuclear attack on one of its garrisons in East Asia, or
even on an American city. And don’t forget the danger of an armed
confrontation between America and China, the North’s neighbour and
grudging ally. It seems distasteful to mention the economic effects of
another Korean war, but they would of course be awful, too.
假定又一场朝鲜大战发生,会是怎么
最危险的不是一方突然想把另一方从来干趴下,而是两者误判互相,争辨螺旋般升级最后促成一场没人想要的灾祸。我们下周的报导已经逐渐提出,美利坚同盟国和朝鲜或者会犯下大错导致核战争的发出。简报也列出了一部分可能的结果:对于朝鲜来说,政权垮台,成千上万的万众死亡。对于南韩以来,大田,这座具有一千万人数,并在朝鲜1000门常规火炮射程范围之内的都会被损毁。对于美利坚联邦合众国以来,一个东南亚地区的大本营,甚至美利坚联邦合众国故里的一座城市可能会惨遭核攻击。同时别忘了美利坚合众国和华夏部队对抗的危急,毕竟中国到底朝鲜的邻家和半个盟友。我们不甘于啄磨另一场朝鲜大战会对事半功倍造成的熏陶,但毫无说,也领略很可怕

It is worth recalling that America has been here before. When Stalin and
Mao were building their first atom bombs, some in the West urged
pre-emptive strikes to stop them. Happily, cooler heads prevailed. Since
then, the logic of deterrence has ensured that these terrible weapons
have never been used. Some day, perhaps by coup or popular uprising,
North Koreans will be rid of their repulsive ruler, and the peninsula
will reunite as a democracy, like Germany. Until then, the world must
keep calm and contain Mr Kim.
值得记念的是美利哥曾经这么干过两次。当年斯大林和毛泽东造他们的首先颗原子弹的时候,西方一些人曾怂恿要首发制人,阻止他们。幸运的是,冷静的心机占了上风。自这未来,威慑的逻辑保证了这么些恐怖的军械从没被运用过。有一天,也许是政变,也许是人民起义。朝鲜将会把她们这一个讨人厌的统治者赶下台,整个朝鲜半岛将会再一次会晤成一个民主国家,就像德意志联邦共和国同一。在这以前,世界必须保障冷静并竭制这一个胖子

Everyone stay calm
All the options for dealing with the North are bad. Although America
should not recognise it as a legitimate nuclear power, it must base its
policy on the reality that it is already an illegitimate one. Mr Kim may
gamble that his nukes give him the freedom to behave more provocatively,
perhaps sponsoring terrorism in the South. He may also sell weapons to
other cruel regimes or terrorist groups. The world must do what it can
to thwart such plots, though some will doubtless succeed.
我们保障冷静
和朝鲜社交的选项没一个是好的,虽说美利坚合众国不应有把他当做法定的核力量对待,但政策必须以基于这些不法力量一度存在的根底之上。三胖有可能会赌核武器会给他更大的空间来施展挑战行为,比如说在南朝鲜接济恐怖分子。他也有可能把武器卖给此外的恐怖组织或是政权。整个社会风气必须尽全力阻止此类阴谋,就算其中有些必定会得手

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