1. Containing Mr Kim 美方希望中国牵制朝鲜

The Economist July 8th 2017

原创翻译,欢迎不吝赐教。

America cannot stop 诺思 Korea from building long-range nuclear
missiles远程核导弹. But it can deter it from using them.

 美利哥虽不可能拦截朝鲜研发远程核导弹,但仍可发挥震慑作用。

  1. THE definition of an intercontinental ballistic missile
    (ICBM)洲际弹道导弹 is one that can fly at least 5,500km (3,420 miles).
    The weapon that 诺思 Korea tested, with characteristic belligerence, on
    the Fourth of July, had a range of perhaps 6,700km (see page21). So its
    claim to have built an ICBM is technically correct. 

洲际弹道导须臾的是飞行距离达5500英里(3420千米)的导弹。朝鲜好勇斗狠,于1六月4日测试了一枚洲际弹道导弹,其射程约为6700海里(见第21页)。因而,从理论上说,朝鲜讲明已经研制一枚洲际弹道导弹的传教是不易的。

2. That is not quite as alarming as it sounds. It allows Kim Jong Un,
North Korea’s dictator, to threaten Anchorage, Alaska, as well as
America’s bases on Guam and in Japan and South Korea. But Los Angeles
and NewYork are still out of reach. Moreover, North Korea has not yet
mastered the technology to protect a nuclear warhead as a missile
re-enters the atmosphere. And for the North to achieve much longer
ranges it will have to add a third stage to its two-stage missiles—a
further technological leap. Nonetheless, Mr Kim’s drive to develop a
nuclear tipped missile capable of striking America is clearly
advancing rapidly. At best, America may have a few years before
North Korea can rain destruction on its cities, as it so often
threatens. 

那听起来挺吓人,但骨子里并非如此。导弹使朝鲜顽梗不化统治者金正恩能够对阿拉斯加州的安克雷奇市以及米国在关岛、东瀛和高丽国的驻地造成恐吓,但多伦多和纽约仍在射程以外。别的,朝鲜尚无通晓导弹重入大气层时爱戴核弹头的技艺。假使朝鲜想获取更远射程的话,它需求将二级导弹升级为三级导弹,那是一项技艺突破。然而,金正日妄图用带核弹头的导弹打击美利哥的想法实在向前迈出了一步。最多几年时光,朝鲜便能毁灭美国都会,正如其不时哭闹的那么。

  1. It was not supposed to be this way. When Mr Kim boasted of being
    close to launching an ICBM, on New Year’s Day, Donald Trump retorted:
    “It won’t happen.” America tried to enlist China, North Korea’s main
    trading partner, to persuade Mr Kim to desist. For a few months China
    made encouraging noises about curbing the flow of goods across its
    border with the North. But MrTrump’s growing friendship with Xi
    Jinping, his Chinese counterpart, seems to have cooled (see page 27). Mr
    Trump recently admitted that pressing China into service “has not worked
    out”. What else can he try?

那原来并不应有如此。今年元旦时,金正恩宣称即将发射一枚洲际弹道导弹。当时,唐纳德·特朗普反驳说,“那不会暴发。”美利坚联邦合众国刻划怂恿朝鲜的重大贸易伙伴中国,让其告诫朝鲜终止这一举止。多少个月以来,中国态度积极,甘休与朝鲜时期的跨境货物往来。川普与华夏大王习近平之间虽曾逐年密切,但今日态度似乎早就冷却。如今,川普认可,迫使中国成功劝说的工作从未奏效。那么,他还是能做什么吧?

4. Despite lots of martial talk from Mr Trump, a pre-emptive strike
against North Korea is a terrifying option. It would risk setting off a
war on the Korean peninsula that could claim millions millions of lives.
The less incendiary step of trying to shoot down Mr Kim’s missiles
whenever he tests them would prevent the North from developing an ICBM.
But America may not yet have perfected the anti-missile capabilities it
needs.

川普曾刊登过多过激言论,但先声后实、打击朝鲜家喻户晓不是明智之举。那有可能诱发一场针对朝鲜半岛的大战,导致数百万人身亡。选用不那么极端的手段,即假设金正恩发射导弹,美利哥立刻接纳措施击落导弹,能够阻碍朝鲜研制洲际弹道导弹。可是美利坚合众国可能并不富有所需的反导弹能力。

  1. Mr Trump might resort to direct negotiations with North Korea—he once
    said that he and Mr Kim could settle all their differences over a burger
    at the White House. But it is hard to imagine that the North would
    really abandon its missile program me, which it appears to view as its
    one ironclad defense against a hostile world. Meanwhile, the
    confidence-building step that the North demands of America—suspending
    all military exercises with South Korea—should be a non-starter.
    The exercises are legal whereas the missile-testing is not. Also North
    Korea has a dire record of cheating on its commitments; suspension would
    perturb America’s allies; and China, which hates displays of American
    might on its borders, would have an incentive to keep Mr Kim as a
    near-nuclear threat.

川普也许会挑选与朝鲜里头进行直接谈判。他曾经代表,自己和金正恩能在白宫吃着开普敦,解决所有争辩。但很难想像朝鲜会真正放任导弹陈设,因为这一安插就像对抗不友善世界的一道壁垒森严的防线。同时,双方营造信心的意图——朝鲜必要美利坚联邦合众国终止与韩国里头的有所军事行动——尚未初步便已终止。那些行动合法,但测试导弹却是不合规的。其它,朝鲜定位不守信;甘休合营只会触怒美利坚联邦合众国盟军;而中华不满美利坚联邦合众国在其边界横行霸道,因而期望将朝鲜看作制裁美利坚同盟国的工具。

6. Sanctions do make life difficult for the North Korean regime. But the
only measure that might truly threaten it would be to cut its oil
supply—and China has already declined to do that. America could punish
more firms in China that abet trade with North Korea (secondary
sanctions, in the jargon). But the border trade is too fluid and diffuse
to halt the determined Mr Kim, who cares nothing for his people’s
hardship.

制约的确会使朝鲜政坛过得不轻松,但确确实实构成威迫的如故隔离油气供应。可是,中国已经代表不愿那样做。美利坚合众国可以对更多协理与朝鲜开展贸易往来的在华集团履行处置手段(用行话说就是履行二级制裁)。但边境贸易便捷易行,难以控制,这一一手很难对不顾群众死活、一心想打击报复的金正恩造成影响。

It helps if people believe what you say  

  1. For all of Mr Trump’s bluster, he has no good way of stopping North
    Korea from developing an effective nuclear weapon. Deterrence and
    containment remain the best (and possibly only) options to ensure that
    Mr Kim is never tempted to use his horrifying arsenal. But if deterrence
    is to be effective, America’s threats must be credible. So Mr Trump must
    stop making promises he is not ready or able to honour—promises like
    stopping North Korea from developing an ICBM.

即使如此川普时常夸下西宁,但他并没有能阻碍朝鲜研发高效核武器的好法子。震慑和制裁是最好的法子(也许是唯一的办法),可以保障金正恩不会利用可怕的刀兵。但一旦威慑有用的话,那么米国也非得言必行、行必果。所以,特朗普必须下马做出任何不打算或无法落成的允诺,比如阻止朝鲜研发洲际弹道导弹。

[注]

洲际弹道导弹(intercontinental ballistic missile)
,经常指射程大于8000英里的长距离弹道式导弹。它是战略核能力的要害组成部分,核三位一体中两极的机要标准。紧要用以攻击敌国领土上的重大军事、政治和经济目的。洲际弹道导弹具有比中程弹道导弹、短程弹道导弹和新命名的阵地弹道导弹更长的射程和更快的快慢。近来重中之重持有国为:U.S.、俄国、中国、英帝国、法兰西共和国。另:印度和朝鲜的洲际弹道导弹也在研制中。

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